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a profusion of ponderings

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Jun
26th
Fri
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Folk economics is the intuitive economics of untrained persons. It is concerned with distribution, and does not allow for or understand incentives. Folk economic notions evolved in our ancestors in circumstances where there was little in the way of specialization, division of labor, capital investment, or economic growth. It can explain the beliefs of naive individuals regarding matters such as international trade, labor economics, law and economics, and industrial organization. It is important that voters understand economic principles. Economists would do a better job of persuading others and of teaching if we paid explicit attention to folk economics. Because untrained individuals do not fully understand gains from trade, training in economics is likely to improve welfare by increasing the number of trading opportunities. There is evidence that this is in fact true.
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May
30th
Sat
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My baby loves me
I’m so happy
Happy makes me a modern girl
Took my money
And bought a TV
TV brings me
Closer to the world

My whole life
was like a picture
of a sunny day.

My baby loves me
I’m so hungry
Hunger makes me
A modern girl
Took my money
And bought a donut
The hole’s the size of
The entire world

My whole life
looked like a picture
of a sunny day.

My baby loves me
I’m so angry
Anger makes me a modern girl
Took my money
I couldn’t buy nothin’
I’m sick of this
Brave new world.

My whole life
looked like a picture
of a sunny day.

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Feb
17th
Tue
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Polya recalled how Hardy ‘… valued clarity, yet what he valued most in mathematics was not clarity but power, surmounting great obstacles that others abandoned in despair.’ Polya also recalled how much Hardy loved jokes and told an anecdote which illustrated both aspects of Hardy’s character: In working with Hardy, I once had an idea of which he approved. But afterwards I did not work sufficiently hard to carry out that idea, and Hardy disapproved. He did not tell me so, of course, yetit came out when he visited a zoological garden in Sweden with Marcel Riesz. In a cage there was a bear. The cage had a gate, and on the gate there was a lock. The bear sniffed at the lock, hitit with his paw, then growled a little, turned around and walkedaway. ‘He is like Polya’, said Hardy. ‘He has excellent ideas, but does not carry them out.
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Feb
14th
Sat
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leftists, incentives, virtue

When you enjoy loving your neighbor it ceases to be a virtue. - Kahlil Gibran, (1883-1931)

the left doesn’t want to work with incentives because they are obsessed with virtue. and there is virtue in something only if people do not enjoy doing it.

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Feb
8th
Sun
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the essence of religion

The evolution of religious doctrine is like sculpture. You chip off the non-essential parts until you are left with the core. And what where is religion once we are done? It is the debris lying on the floor.

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Feb
4th
Wed
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What you want is who you can become. You’re free to do what you want, but you can’t choose your wants themselves (desires and motivations), which are innate and vary from person to person.
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People often react most defensively when challenged not on their firmly held beliefs but on beliefs they wish were true but suspect at some level to be false.
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ugly proof

free image host

edit: corrected a few mistakes and polished up presentation

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Feb
2nd
Mon
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html fragment from opera into html clipboard

I’m a user of Supermemo and lately Evernote, and of course Opera. Now as with many softwares i use they work great alone, but their lack of cooperation is severely cripling to their ultimate usefulness together. Wouldnt it be great if (like with Firefox, which i don’t use simply because it is too slow) a selected html fragment from Opera can be copied to the clipboard into the windows HTML Clipboard format so that it can be pasted to any supported application, with the formatting mostly intact? Yes, but no I don’t have a user friendly solution, since I am myself an amateur programmer I can only give you amateurish javascript and python scripts to deal with this problem. Sorry.

first place this piece of Opera command somewhere, either as a shortcut or a menu command. (for example, in preferences -> advanced -> shortcuts -> edit (either mouse or keyboard setup)

Copy & Go to Page, “javascript:(function(){var html_selection=document.createElement(‘div’); html_selection.appendChild(window.getSelection().getRangeAt(0).cloneContents()); document.location=’data:text/cwf;charset=UTF-8,’+encodeURIComponent(document.location+’\r\n’+html_selection.innerHTML);})()”“

also add a mime type “text/cwf” which opens a python script with the following code

from sys import argv as arguments
import htmlclipboard # the module to deal with “HTML Format” (a clipboard format for formatted text)

tempfile=arguments[1] # the file opera places the copied content into
f=open(tempfile,’r’)
source=f.readline()[:-1] #source url
content=f.read() #html fragment
f.close()

cb=htmlclipboard.HtmlClipboard()
cb.PutFragment(content,None,None,source)

get the htmlclipboard module from here. if you dont have pywin32, get it here

and you are done! to copy text you just execute the Opera command with your set keyboard or mouse or menu shortcut or whatever. The formatted text will be in your clipboard.

EDITED: to include source url so that you can paste it in Evernote with the source url attribute set

references:

http://my.opera.com/community/forums/topic.dml?id=182633&t=1233471387&page=1

http://code.activestate.com/recipes/474121/

http://www.w3.org/TR/DOM-Level-2-Traversal-Range/ranges.html

http://web.archive.org/web/20070827011520/http://forum.evernote.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=195

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Jan
30th
Fri
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idiotization aversion (by anology to loss aversion)

Loss aversion is a cognitive bias where we are more afraid of losing what we already have than failing to achieve an equal magnitude gain (provided the quantity in consideration is a small proportion of total wealth).

Becoming stupider or becoming smarter by the same degree should have the same cost/benefit. Lack of intelligence is equivalent to loss of intelligence. Yet people shudder at the thought of being stupider, but think nothing of not being smarter. They think they would make all sort of horrible and stupid decisions were they less intelligent, but would never imagine themselves acting differently in a better way if they were smarter.

As Eliezer Yudkowsky said, “only knowledge can fortell the cost of ignorance”, so “only intelligence can fortell the cost of stupidity”.

Application to life? Be very very careful of simply dismissing what you do not understand.

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…an observation selection effect is operating to filter the evidence we can have about the success of our own evolutionary development.

Suppose it were true that on 99.9% of all planets where life emerged, it went extinct before developing to the point where intelligent observers could begin to ponder their origin.  If this were the case, what should we expect to observe?

Answer: something similar to what we do in fact observe.  Clearly, the hypothesis that the odds of intelligent life developing on a given planet are low does not predict that we should find ourselves on a planet where life went extinct at an early stage.  Instead, it predicts that we should find ourselves on a planet where intelligent life evolved, even if such planets constitute a very small fraction of all planets where primitive life evolved.

The long track record of life’s success in our evolutionary past, which one may naively take to support the hypothesis that life’s prospects are in general good and that there is something approaching inevitability in the rise of higher organisms from simple replicators, turns out, after reflecting on the overwhelming observation selection effect filtering the possible evidence we could have, not to offer any such support at all, because this is the very same evidence that we should expect to have had if the optimistic hypothesis were false.

A much more careful examination of the details of our evolutionary history would be needed to circumvent this selection effect.

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Jan
29th
Thu
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The greatest part of a writer’s time is spent in reading, in order to write; a man will turn over half a library to make one book.
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The radical novelty of modern science lies precisely in the rejection of the belief … that the forces which move the stars and atoms are contingent upon the preferences of the human heart.
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His regret is evident. His plan can’t be implemented without more deaths: those of normal humans, by strategic necessity, and those of a few enhanced assistants of his, whose temptation by greater heights would interfere. After using the command, Reynolds may reprogram them — or me — as savants, having focused intentions and restricted self-metaprogrammers. Such deaths are a necessary cost of his plan.

“I make no claims of being a saint.”

“Merely a savior.”

Normals might think him a tyrant, because they mistake him for one of them, and they’ve never trusted their own judgement. They can’t fathom that Reynolds is equal to the task. His judgement is optimal in questions of their affairs, and their notions of greed and ambition do not apply to an enhanced mind.

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I understand the mechanism of my own thinking. I know precisely how I know, and my understanding is recursive. I understand the infinite regress of this self-knowing, not by proceeding step by step endlessly, but by apprehending the limit. The nature of recursive cognition is clear to me. A new meaning of the term “self-aware.
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